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	<title>Tom's Blog On Markets &#38; Investments</title>
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	<link>http://tom-davis.us</link>
	<description>The Official Blog For Tom Davis</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:57:10 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Super Crunch In C&amp;I Lending</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/11/super-crunch-in-ci-lending/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/11/super-crunch-in-ci-lending/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:57:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=297</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Well there is no doubt that bank lending is in a pretty severe downward spiral.  The weekly numbers for Total Bank Credit are now declining at a 6% year over year rate.  The growth in bank credit has been negative for the past 6 weeks beginning with the week ending September 23.  In the dual [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>No More CDS? At All? Ever?  Maybe So.</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/07/no-more-cds/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/07/no-more-cds/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:07:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alternative Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[clearinghouse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit default swaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Einhorn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greenlight Capital]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=292</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That&#8217;s CDS (as in Credit Default Swaps), not the computer disks or Certificates of Deposit.  But David Einhorn the well-known chief of Greenlight Capital has come out unequivocally against their existence in a letter to his investors documented in this FT Column.  I never thought I would see this coming from a well-known hedge fund [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Oct. Jobs Report-First Thoughts</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/06/oct-jobs-report-first-thoughts/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/06/oct-jobs-report-first-thoughts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:13:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[August jobs report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jobs report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Non-farm payrolls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[October jobs report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revisions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[September jobs report]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=287</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 190,000 job loss number is a tad worse than expectations.  Lots of bearish commentary on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.  The bond market has not rallied like it did last month, though.  Price action in USTs, yields down 6 bps or so, suggests the number is not that much worse than expectations.  Now look at [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/06/oct-jobs-report-first-thoughts/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>October ISM Production Index At 63.3 Points To More Widespread Growth</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/03/october-ism-production-index-at-633-points-to-more-widespread-growth/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/11/03/october-ism-production-index-at-633-points-to-more-widespread-growth/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 09:44:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ISM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Production Index]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=280</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In yesterday&#8217;s October ISM survey, the Production Index registered at 63.3, for a 7.6 point move, the largest jump of any of the five components.  September&#8217;s reading was 55.7 and the August reading a 61.7.  Couple of notes on this data point.  Clearly more industries than autos are kicking in.  Since 1978 the ISM Production [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>SAT Question, Detroit:Cars As Greenwich Is To:</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/30/sat-question-detroitcars-as-greenwich/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/30/sat-question-detroitcars-as-greenwich/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:47:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=275</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Bloomberg story today on former hedge fund manager Phil Duff
In 2008, 80 percent of the commercial property in Greenwich was occupied by hedge fund firms, according to real estate broker CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.Thanks to collapses like Duff’s, 460,000 square feet of downtown office space, out of the 2.1 million square feet available, is empty.
 [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/30/sat-question-detroitcars-as-greenwich/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Goodyear Tire As Bellwether</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/28/goodyear-tire-as-bellwether/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/28/goodyear-tire-as-bellwether/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:55:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=270</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Re: my comments in the previous post about how nervous fund managers are about the Q4 and the strength of the recovery.  The price action in Goodyear Tire, down over 20% as I write, would be a good indicator of that.  Company forecasted a loss for the Q4 and stock just got killed.  After peaking [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Fed President Hoenig Speaks In Kansas City, USD Snapping Back</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/27/tom-hoenig-speaks-in-kansas-city-usd-snapping-back/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/27/tom-hoenig-speaks-in-kansas-city-usd-snapping-back/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:23:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fed funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FXA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[market correction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=263</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday afternoon Kansas City Fed President Tom Hoenig spoke to the CFA chapter here in town.  The main message is we have at least, at least a year of very easy monetary policy ahead of us.  My interpretation of the his comments below:  the Fed is still more concerned about deflation risk than inflation risk [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/27/tom-hoenig-speaks-in-kansas-city-usd-snapping-back/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Gold and The 2% Factor</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/08/gold-and-the-2-factor/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/08/gold-and-the-2-factor/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Oct 2009 14:28:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=258</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Former Fed economists that I have heard speak indicate that the Fed, after running lots of simulations and models, has an ongoing, implicit 2% target for inflation.  You can see their current thinking in the latest FOMC minutes.  It feels it needs that much inflation to meet its dual mandate.  Over the last [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/08/gold-and-the-2-factor/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Climate Change-The Best Kept Secret</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/06/climate-change-the-best-kept-secret/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/06/climate-change-the-best-kept-secret/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:25:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Climate Change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=252</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kansas City must be the capital of the world for best kept secrets.  There is a conference at the Linda Hall Library Friday, Oct 16th.  Some heavy hitters on climate change.  $30, including what will probably be a very nice lunch.  If you haven&#8217;t been to the Linda Hall Library, it is a very lovely [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://tom-davis.us/2009/10/06/climate-change-the-best-kept-secret/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Hunting The Next Black Swan</title>
		<link>http://tom-davis.us/2009/09/16/hunting-the-next-black-swan/</link>
		<comments>http://tom-davis.us/2009/09/16/hunting-the-next-black-swan/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2009 02:42:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Good Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[limited purpose banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tipping Point]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tom-davis.us/?p=220</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Interesting story on NPR this afternoon that relates to the prospects for improved financial market regulatory reform.
What do sardine populations, Wall Street and Antarctica have in common? The answer is, they can all reach a critical moment — a tipping point — and change dramatically and unexpectedly.
Fish populations can crash. Markets can, too. And Antarctic [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://tom-davis.us/2009/09/16/hunting-the-next-black-swan/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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